Abstract:Marital distress is an ongoing concern among U.S. military couples and is associated with poor service member (SM) mental health, suicide, and SM readiness and retention. Thus, investigating the predictors of divorce, a possible outcome of marital distress, is relevant to the DoD’s interests in the health and well-being of its SMs. This study aimed to examine whether marital processes, SM mental health, and SM military experiences predicted divorce over time. I hypothesized that partner dedication, partner marital satisfaction, partner positive bonding, partner negative communication, SM dedication, SM marital satisfaction, SM positive bonding, SM negative communication, SM PTSD, SM psychological distress, SM combat exposure, and SM deployment length would each significantly predict divorce when examined univariately. I tested this hypothesis and additional research questions using baseline assessments of the aforementioned variables predicting divorce over a period of up to eight years. The sample consisted of 595 couples, including SMs (husbands) and civilian partners (wives) who participated in a randomized clinical trial testing the effectiveness of a marriage education program in the U.S. Army. Approximately 25% of the sample divorced by the end of the study, and half of the couples did so by approximately six years into the study. Results from logistic regressions revealed that each variable significantly predicted divorce, with the exception of SM deployment length and SM combat exposure. Cox Proportional Hazards models revealed that marital satisfaction predicted divorce over and above all other variables for both SMs and partners in the combined models. In the combined partner model, negative communication also had unique predictive effects. Results may improve our understanding of how and when to best help distressed military couples to enhance readiness and address SM well-being.